# Statistically Fine
You'll be fine. We have the receipts.
Methodology: https://statisticallyfine.com/methodology/

## The headline stat
99.999993% chance of a safe boarding — 1 passenger death per 13,700,000 boardings, worldwide, 2018-2022. Not per flight, not per accident.
Source: MIT / ARNOLD BARNETT, 2024 — https://news.mit.edu/2024/study-flying-keeps-getting-safer-0807
Full explainer: https://statisticallyfine.com/one-in-13-7-million/

## Aircraft (Boeing StatSum, 57th ed. — hull-loss / with-fatalities rate per million departures)
- 767: 0.55 / 0.13
- 777: 0.36 / 0.12
- 787: 0.00 / 0.00 — Boeing excludes Air India 171 — a 787-8 that crashed in June 2025, killing 241 of the 242 aboard and 19 on the ground — because ICAO had not yet classified it. The rate below does not contain that crash.
- A350: 0.46 / 0.46
- A320/321/319 NEO: 0.04 / 0.04
- A330 NEO: 0.00 / 0.00 — No A330neo hull loss appears in Boeing’s table. That is an absence of record over a short service life, not a guarantee.
- A380: 0.00 / 0.00 — No A380 hull loss appears in Boeing’s table. That is an absence of record, not a guarantee.
- 747-8: 0.00 / 0.00 — Boeing flags the 747-8 as having accumulated fewer than one million departures. A 0.00 rate over thin exposure is weak evidence, not strong evidence.
Full citation: Boeing, Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents, Worldwide Operations 1959–2025 (57th ed.) — https://www.boeing.com/content/dam/boeing/v2/safety/statsum.pdf

## Airlines (last fatal accident year, source)
- Qantas: 1951 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Hawaiian Airlines: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- All Nippon Airways: 1971 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- EVA Air: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- British Airways: 1976 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Qatar Airways: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Emirates: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Cathay Pacific: 1972 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Etihad Airways: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Lufthansa: 1993 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- KLM: 1977 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Air New Zealand: 1979 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Finnair: 1963 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Japan Airlines: 1985 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Delta Air Lines: 1996 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Southwest Airlines: 2018 — NTSB / ASN — Flight 1380 (2018)
- Singapore Airlines: 2024 — Singapore TSIB — SQ321 severe turbulence (2024)
- Swiss: 2024 — ASN / SUST — LX1885 (2024)
- Alaska Airlines: 2000 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Turkish Airlines: 2009 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Iberia: 1985 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Aer Lingus: 1968 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Korean Air: 1997 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Virgin Australia: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- American Airlines: 2001 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled) — mainline; see note
- United Airlines: 1991 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- JetBlue: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- WestJet: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Air Canada: 1983 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled) — mainline; see note
- Air France: 2009 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- SAS Scandinavian Airlines: 2001 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Austrian Airlines: 1960 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- TAP Air Portugal: 1977 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Aegean Airlines: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Icelandair: 1978 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- easyJet: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Ryanair: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Wizz Air: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Jet2: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- IndiGo: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Air India: 2025 — ASN — AI171, Ahmedabad (2025)
- Thai Airways: 1998 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Vietnam Airlines: 1997 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- China Airlines: 2002 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Air China: 2002 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- China Southern: 1997 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Hainan Airlines: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Xiamen Airlines: none on record — ASN — no fatal accident; see note
- Saudia: 1996 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Oman Air: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Royal Air Maroc: 1994 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Ethiopian Airlines: 2019 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Kenya Airways: 2007 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- EL AL: 1992 — ASN (compiled) — see note
- Copa Airlines: 1992 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- LATAM Airlines: 2007 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Avianca: 1990 — Aviation Safety Network (compiled)
- Azul: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Fiji Airways: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record
- Air Astana: none on record — Aviation Safety Network — no fatal accident on record

## Odds — ISAF comparison set (lifetime odds vs the 1-in-13.7M boarding risk)
- Heart disease kills you: 1 in 5 (2,740,000× more likely)
- Cancer kills you: 1 in 7 (1,960,000× more likely)
- A stroke kills you: 1 in 24 (571,000× more likely)
- A hospital infection kills you: 1 in 38 (361,000× more likely)
- The flu kills you: 1 in 63 (217,000× more likely)
- You die in a car crash: 1 in 84 (163,000× more likely)
- You are poisoned by accident: 1 in 193 (71,000× more likely)
- You die from a fall: 1 in 218 (62,800× more likely)
- You drown: 1 in 1,134 (12,100× more likely)
- A bike ride kills you: 1 in 4,919 (2,790× more likely)
- You freeze to death: 1 in 6,045 (2,270× more likely)
- The sun kills you: 1 in 13,729 (998× more likely)
- You're killed by lightning: 1 in 79,746 (172× more likely)
- A train crash kills you: 1 in 156,169 (88× more likely)
- Fireworks kill you: 1 in 340,733 (40× more likely)
- A shark kills you: 1 in 4,332,817 (3× more likely)
Source: International Shark Attack File (NSC + CDC data, 2021 US population) — https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/shark-attacks/odds/compare-risk/death/

## Odds — National Safety Council, 2021 (US), kept separate — different compilation, different numbers
- Heart disease: 1 in 6 (2,280,000× more likely)
- Cancer: 1 in 7 (1,960,000× more likely)
- COVID-19: 1 in 10 (1,370,000× more likely)
- All preventable causes of death: 1 in 19 (721,000× more likely)
- Chronic lower respiratory disease: 1 in 31 (442,000× more likely)
- Opioid overdose (accidental): 1 in 58 (236,000× more likely)
- Guns (all intents): 1 in 89 (154,000× more likely)
- Motor-vehicle crash: 1 in 93 (147,000× more likely)
- Fall: 1 in 98 (140,000× more likely)
- Gun assault: 1 in 208 (65,900× more likely)
- Pedestrian incident: 1 in 485 (28,200× more likely)
- Motorcyclist: 1 in 747 (18,300× more likely)
- Drowning: 1 in 1,006 (13,600× more likely)
- Fire or smoke: 1 in 1,287 (10,600× more likely)
- Choking on food: 1 in 2,659 (5,150× more likely)
- Bicyclist: 1 in 3,546 (3,860× more likely)
- Sunstroke: 1 in 4,655 (2,940× more likely)
- Accidental gun discharge: 1 in 7,944 (1,720× more likely)
- Electrocution, radiation, extreme temperatures, and pressure: 1 in 13,176 (1,040× more likely)
- Cataclysmic storm: 1 in 20,098 (682× more likely)
- Sharp objects: 1 in 25,960 (528× more likely)
- Hot surfaces and substances: 1 in 45,908 (298× more likely)
- Dog attack: 1 in 53,843 (254× more likely)
- Hornet, wasp, and bee stings: 1 in 54,516 (251× more likely)
- Lightning: Too few deaths in 2021 to calculate odds
- Railway passenger: Too few deaths in 2021 to calculate odds
- Passenger on an airplane: Too few deaths in 2021 to calculate odds
Source: Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2021 — https://web.archive.org/web/20240601000000/https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/

## Pages
/odds/ /aircraft/ /fears/ /data/ /one-in-13-7-million/ /methodology/

## License
Data: CC BY 4.0 (link-back to statisticallyfine.com requested) — https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Refreshed: 2026-07-09